Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-1-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1446
· median 1446
· range 1446–1446
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1186
Q3 1422
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
